Carbon emissions from fossil fuels hit record highs in 2024: report
Global carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels such as oil, coal and natural gas grew yet again in 2024, according to a new assessment.
Why it matters: A peak in global emissions is necessary in the near-term, followed by steep reductions to net zero by 2050, to avoid potentially catastrophic consequences from human-caused global warming.
- Global fossil-related CO2 emissions are expected to increase by 0.8% this year to 37.4 billion metric tons. This is higher than the average annual growth rate seen during the last ten years.
Driving the news: The new, comprehensive report on the global climate cycle comes from the international Global Carbon Project. It was released Tuesday to coincide with the COP29 Climate Summit in Baku, Azerbaijan.
- The report, which involves scientists from more than 80 institutions, shows that a much-discussed peak in global CO2 emissions is proving elusive.
- In fact, carbon dioxide emissions tied to burning fossil fuels are now 8% higher than they were in 2015 when the Paris Agreement was first negotiated, the report shows.
- The report, which is based on peer-reviewed methods, shows that the burning of fossil fuels is still swamping the rapid deployment of renewable energy sources.
What they're saying: "The scene is set for peak global fossil CO2 emissions, but the world continually finds ways to burn ever more fossil fuels," said co-author Glen Peters, a senior researcher at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Norway.
By the numbers: Global CO2 emissions from coal use are slated to grow this year by 0.2%, the report finds, reaching another record high despite declining use in many countries.
- Increasing coal use in China and India has offset curbs elsewhere, particularly a large decline in the European Union.
- Emissions from international aviation grew significantly this year, and helped bring CO2 emissions from oil use to a 0.9% increase this year, the report finds.
- In addition, CO2 emissions from natural gas rose by about 2.4% this year, much of which was from China, along with a number of other countries.
The intrigue: Much attention has focused this year on whether China's emissions are peaking. It's the world's largest current emitter of greenhouse gases.
- The new report finds China's emissions grew by a small amount this year, on the order of 0.2%.
- While China saw record growth in renewable power this year, coal power also expanded in order to keep pace with electricity demand.
- On the relatively flat overall emissions trajectory in China this year, Peters said it may or may not be a sign of peak emissions there.
- "Whether that is just a one-off or a sign of a trend, we'll have to wait and see," he told Axios. "We need a few more years of data."
Peters said China has likely reached peak oil use, given the growth of electric vehicle use there.
Between the lines: The report reveals fault lines in emissions between developed and developing nations, with emissions declining in some countries, only to be outweighed by increases elsewhere.
- In India, for example, fossil-related CO2 emissions are projected to rise by 4.6% this year as the economy continues to grow.
- Most of the new electricity demand is being met with existing coal-fired power plants, with a smaller share by new renewables, study coauthor Robbie Andrew, who is also a senior researcher at CICERO, said in a statement.
- By contrast, fossil-tied CO2 emissions in the EU are projected to decline by 3.8% this year, and U.S. fossil-related CO2 emissions are projected to decline by 0.6%.
- In the U.S., the report finds that natural gas and renewables continue to best coal in the power sector.
Zoom out: Overall, the report shows a significant gap between the country level and the world at large, with the global community not yet making the emissions cuts that would be required to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature targets, at least not yet.
- There are, however, clear signs of reducing emissions in some countries. A total of 22 countries saw CO2 emissions tied to burning fossil fuels come down while they grew their economies.
- Nations are also adding record amounts of solar, wind, EVs and other technologies to bend the emissions curve downward.
- These developments come amid escalating climate impacts in the form of extreme weather events, sea level rise and other trends.
The bottom line: "Things are happening," Peters said, "but not enough to get emissions to turn around yet."